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The Goal of Hiring: To Predict Performance
Hiring is an act of prediction. Any technology or practice that fails to improve the ability to forecast a candidate's future success is ultimately unhelpful. Yet, many modern recruitment innovations, from applicant tracking systems to keyword searching, are not aligned with this fundamental goal and may even undermine it.
The "Recruiting Problem" in Numbers
The consequences of flawed hiring systems are significant, contributing to what can be called "The Recruiting Problem." Evidence of this includes:
- Nearly half of all new hires leave within 18 months.
- Fewer than 50% of new hires achieve a "good" or "very good" performance rating six months into the job.
- Approximately one-third of annual company failures can be attributed to poor hiring decisions.
Why Traditional Hiring Methods Fail
The primary tools of modern recruiting—the resume and the Applicant Tracking System (ATS)—are the main culprits behind these poor outcomes.
The Flaws of Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS)
With employers receiving an average of 89 applicants per job post, the vast majority of large companies use an ATS to manage the volume. These systems filter candidates by searching for keywords related to employer-specified criteria, such as:
- Years of experience
- Previous employers
- Schools attended
However, scientific studies have consistently shown that these factors are poor predictors of actual job performance. This focus on the wrong criteria means qualified candidates are often screened out while less suitable ones pass through, exacerbating the problem.
The Unreliability of the Resume
The resume remains the foundational document for candidate selection, but it is an inadequate tool for prediction for three key reasons:
- Resumes omit what matters most: They say little about the strongest predictors of performance, such as a candidate's behavioral patterns, cognitive ability, and potential for engagement.
- Resumes highlight what doesn't matter: They emphasize weak predictors like length of experience and skills. They also present past group accomplishments (e.g., revenue figures) that are not indicative of an individual's future potential.
- Resumes are unreliable: A significant percentage of candidates admit to providing less-than-accurate information. Furthermore, most "tailor" their resumes by omitting unfavorable details and loading them with keywords to game the ATS, making the document an untrustworthy record.
A Better Way: Predicting Performance with Science
To fix the recruiting problem, employers must shift their focus from analyzing the past to predicting the future. This requires collecting relevant, truthful information through scientifically validated methods.
What Truly Predicts Performance?
The science of psychometrics has identified the key predictors of success for the majority of jobs:
- Cognitive Ability: The capacity for reasoning, problem-solving, and learning.
- Behaviors: Natural tendencies and patterns of work.
- Preferences: The types of work and environments where an individual thrives.
These factors, not experience or pedigree, are what determine a candidate's fit and potential.
The Power of Validated Assessments
Instead of reading resumes, leading organizations use validated assessments to measure the true drivers of performance. A "validated" assessment is one that has been scientifically proven to measure what it claims to measure. These tools provide relevant data and uncover the truth about a candidate's abilities and tendencies in a reliable and defensible way.
Advances in psychometrics and technology have made these assessments more affordable and easier to implement than ever. By prioritizing validated assessments over resumes and keyword screens, organizations can stop guessing and start accurately predicting performance. '''