The Flaw in Our Daily Planning
When we organize our schedules, we almost never plan on distractions. We create plans as if we operate in a perfect world, free from interruptions that could pull us away from our intended tasks. This ideal state of complete focus has likely never occurred, yet we continue to plan as if this distraction-free nirvana is achievable, ignoring the reality that life always intrudes to alter our priorities.
The High Probability of Low-Probability Events
The reason for this disconnect is a concept from mathematical economics: the high probability of low-probability events. We don’t plan for a single, specific low-probability event because, by definition, it is unlikely to occur. For instance, you wouldn't map out your day around getting a flat tire or being stuck in traffic from a major accident.
However, the likelihood that one of the many possible low-probability events will happen is extremely high. While the chance of a specific client having an emergency on a Sunday afternoon is near zero, the probability of some distraction occurring on that afternoon is quite high. We are all frequently impacted by unforeseen events, from traffic jams to sudden client demands.
A Better Approach: Plan for the Inevitable
Rather than trying to change this reality, it is far more constructive to accept it. The key is to manage the high probability of some low-probability event distracting you from your goals.
For example, when engaging in long-term executive coaching, it’s useful to warn clients that a legitimate crisis will occur during the process. While the specific crisis—an acquisition, a key employee defection, a product recall—cannot be named, its arrival is predictable. Acknowledging this reality from the start helps manage expectations and timelines.
By expecting the unexpected and planning for a distraction or two, you can create more realistic and resilient schedules. Accepting that disruptions will happen allows you to accommodate them without derailing your entire day, and you will be glad you did.